[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
CONTINUITY WOULD PLACE THE WAVE CLOSER TO 55W. WAVE IS WEAK AND
IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHICH WILL WEAKEN IT FURTHER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE NEAR 54W AT
07/000 UTC. HOWEVER THERE IS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N12W 6N20W 2N28W 1N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-30W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-38W AND S OF
3N W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE SE US AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. A WEAK 1017 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA AND WILL SHIFT
E ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC
AND ENCOMPASSES THE GULF. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC EXTENDS TO COVER FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF AND DIPS S
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM THE W CUBA TO OVER HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THEIR IMMEDIATE COASTLINES. MODERATE TO
STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS
ARE ALSO GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 78W-86W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W DIPPING S INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDING ALONG 67W N OF 25N. AT
07/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION OVER BERMUDA SW TO
28N72W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A WEAK
1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE N COAST
OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM
27N70W TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTENING
DATA ARE TO THE E WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N68W TO BEYOND
32N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATE BY A DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 10N46W TO 4N49W. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAHARAN
AIR LAYER TRACKER FROM CIMSS INDICATES THE THAT AFRICAN DUST
COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE




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