[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED 60W SOUTH OF 13N
AT 07/1800 UTC. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED EVER SINCE
IT WAS PUT ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. IT MAY BE OMITTED
FROM THE 08/0000 UTC ANALYSIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A 92W RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM OKLAHOMA TO TEXAS TO MEXICO. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
REACHES 15N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING FROM NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
EASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE BEEN INDICATING AFRICAN DUST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 23N70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 29N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N63W
TO 28N67W TO 21N75W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 40W IS COVERED
BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N40W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH REACHES 30N12W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N
EAST OF 40W IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH 25N21W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
25W/26W SOUTH OF 13N. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N38W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N59W 23N70W COLD FRONT.



$$
MT

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