[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
LAST FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS WAVE WITH ITS OVERALL
MOISTURE FIELD THINNING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING MORE ABSORBED IN
THE ITCZ AS IT APPROACHES THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS FROM 3N-7N.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 4N30W 2N40W AND INLAND
OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 52W. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 260
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF DUE TO
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLC. PATCHY CLOUDS DOT THE
GULF...HOWEVER CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH AND TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS...25-30 KT...ARE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WEST WITH THESE TRADES...MAINLY N OF 14N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS PANAMA. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF S OF 12N.
A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY AN UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...LIES OVER THE W ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY NEAR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 55W-67W FROM 25N-30N. A SECOND...AND SMALLER...AREA OF
CONVECTION IS JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 62W-65W.
THIS CLUSTER IS RAPIDLY MOVING ENE AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB SFC HIGH PRES NEAR 29N48W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CUTS INTO THE RIDGE NEAR 31N31W AND
EXTENDS TO A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR 27N36W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N50W. A NARROW BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS EVIDENT WITHIN 40 NM OF
THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE AZORES PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS IN THE EAST
ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON



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