[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 3N30W 3N48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N AND
60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-25W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 29W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.
AS OF 21Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 30N85W...JUST WEST OF
PANAMA CITY...AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N90W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER NEAR 26N97W. A VERY NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING S ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS OVER THE
GULF NW OF 23N96W. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO 50S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS ON WED. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALOFT... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR 11N73W TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE TERRAIN OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BASE OF A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH 31N58W 25N59W 20N60W
AND OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN
63W-70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
29N BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND 70W. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-62W. FARTHER EAST...TWO SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEMS
RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N24W. THE SECOND HIGH PRES IS NEAR 30N40W. A SFC
TROUGH SPLITS THE HIGHS ALONG 30N30W 27N35W 22N45W. A NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE SFC TROUGH. THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE SFC RIDGE.

$$
WADDINGTON




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