[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON
SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH
INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W 4N40W 4N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
4W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS
OF 03Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 27N90W TO SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 25N97W. A
VERY NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE NE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND MEXICO IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-26N
W OF 90W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE GULF AND IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE S GULF WATERS ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 76W FROM NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO
14N. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE S
BAY OF CAMPECHE.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO PUERTO
RICO AND NW VENEZUELA. THIS IS PROVIDING ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND S WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER
OHIO WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N77W AND EXTENDS
SW ACROSS N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC N OF 30N.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N50W SW TO THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. FARTHER EAST...TWO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS DOMINATE THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE STRONGEST BEING
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N29W AND A WEAKER HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N33W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE
HIGHS AND LIES FROM 31N27W 29N31W 27N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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