[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION...SE VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS E OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N15W 5N20W EQ35W 1N43W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N37W TO 3N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...
INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY DRY AND STABLE. AS OF 0900
UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
RIDGE. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMAINS ACROSS THE SE
GULF AND W CUBA.  ALOFT...A RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND N
GUATEMALA ENVELOPS THE ENTIRE GULF. FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER FEATURE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF.
ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE W GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
TO THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND THE N COAST OF E CUBA WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS E CUBA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THESE SHOWERS
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
POSITIONED OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 60W AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED IN THE NW
ATLC NEAR 40N61W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W WSW TO 25N74W. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE PROVIDING
NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BROAD ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 8N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net