[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170456
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 11N MOVING W
10-15 KT. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N13W 6N20W 6N28W 1N39W 6N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE IVORY
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W ALONG THE BORDER OF LIBERIA AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 8N32W TO 2N47W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MODERATE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SE US COAST THROUGH A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEAKENING AS IT
ENTERS THE GULF EXTENDING SW INTO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS THE SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WELL N OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND COVER THE W ATLC
AS WELL. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NW OVER MEXICO CITY
THEN N TO MONTERREY. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BEING DRAWN OVER THE W GULF BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
75 NM OF THE COASTLINE THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TEXAS NEAR
HOUSTON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLOUD FREE. HOWEVER...SMOKE COVERS
THE E GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF EARLIER FIRES OVER
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...S HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N80W.
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND THUS HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN
S OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG N COLOMBIA AND THE ABC
ISLANDS THEN NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST S OF GUADELOUPE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N64W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 43W-55W AND THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W TO 22N55W
BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF
THE FRONT AND ARE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVELS FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 44W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC N OF 12N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N33W AND THUS FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT ARE PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE






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