[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE REMAINS DISTORTED AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA. THUS...THE POSITION IS LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
58W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS NOW
CENTERED ALONG 83W IN THE E PACIFIC.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N20W 4N30W 5N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST EAST OF 9W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W AND
THE COAST OF S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR TAMPA BAY AND CONTINUING ALONG 26N90W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC...AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP
TO 200 NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NE IN
SWLY UPPER FLOW. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY
INSTABILITY ALONG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR
DUE TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED
SFC TROUGH...REMAIN IN THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOUND IN
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
S OF 11N. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE E PACIFIC ALONG 83W. ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AROUND AN UPPER HIGH
NEAR JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N64W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 29N70W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W
WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE GULF. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
28N. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 72W-76W. FARTHER EAST...A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N43W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 24N50W TO 20N58W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS...WITH NO INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION...SURROUNDS THE
FRONT. A WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N56W IS EMBEDDED IN A
MUCH LARGER SFC RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON






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