[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WELL INLAND FROM THE BRAZIL/VENEZUELA BORDER BETWEEN 4N AND
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W IN VENEZUELA...THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 3N23W TO 5N38W INTO FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 3N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AREA OF THE GUYANAS AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH AND WEST OF MEXICO ALSO IS
CONTRIBUTING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW RESULTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 28N81W 26N90W 21N94W. AN ISOLATED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 98W FROM 17N TO THE
COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS OR
SO ARE WEAKENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS
PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
WEST OF 70W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS CUBA...TO 70W EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM 13N74W ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 20N70W TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N81W 26N90W 21N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1026 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N26W TO 27N47W TO 24N71W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG
34N32W TO 24N35W TO 19N36W AND 15N37W.

$$
MT




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