[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. A MID LEVEL
ROTATION IS NEAR 7N21W INDICATING THE PEAK OF THE WAVE IS ALONG
THE AXIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF FRENCH
GUIANA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INLAND OVER PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N20W 2N32W 1N42W
2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 8W...FROM
1N-12N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
19W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER SW TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO 31N WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NE US AND THE NW ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY INLAND
OVER S GEORGIA TO N LOUISIANA. THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE W
GULF IS DRAWING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
E OF 90W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE MOST OF THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA
FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THIS SMOKE PLUME IS
DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FIRES THAT CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM IN THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW TO 16N80W DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WEAK UPPER LOW
IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF
LINE FROM 17N81W 15N73W TO THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THUS LIMITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLC N OF 29N FROM 62W TO NE FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N W OF 50W PROVIDING
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION N OF 31N W OF
BERMUDA TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 15N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 31N39W.

$$
WALLACE




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